Who's Going to Win Western States?

The "Big Dance" is only five days away and the pre-race hype has hit a fever pitch! It could be a "fire and ice" year at the Western States 100-Mile Endurance Run. As has been reported, there's still a lot of snow up in the high country and, as of last night, the forecast for Auburn on Saturday is a balmy 98 degrees. Fire and ice! When I ran WSER last year, there was basically no snow up in the high country and we were able to cross the American River by our own power. Probably not the case this year!

I mostly agree with AJW's picks for the guys and gals, which is to say I like Jim Walmsley as the top male and Kaci Lickteig as the top female. Those two seem to be the consensus picks. As Meghan Hicks from iRunFar correctly pointed out, the only person who can beat Jim Walmsley is...Jim Walmsley. I think, on Saturday, Walmsley takes the lead and never relinquishes it, running at the front the whole time but certainly feeling the pressure from a stacked field behind him. He finishes/wins with a time of about 14:55.

On the women's side, I just think Lickteig operates on another level (similar to Walmsley), though certainly Magdalena Boulet (former Olympian and 2015 Western States champ) and Stephanie Howe (2014 champ) are no slouches and will be ready to pounce if Lickteig falters (which I doubt will happen). Lickteig weighs maybe 100 pounds soaking wet but, like Ann Trason, is a full-on badass.

So there you have it: Walmsley and Lickteig both win. But I am going to say that neither sets the course record for their respective genders.
  

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For whatever it's worth, my training is progressing nicely. My right knee is better than 90% (knock on wood) and my left knee is about 80%. My left knee starting barking at me likely because it was compensating for the right knee. But both are on the mend and, fortunately, there's always KT Tape if I need a little extra support. But, overall, the body is holding up very nicely and I'm liking where things are with the Leadville Trail 100-Mile Run now about two months away. I'm getting in some good training and have prioritized legit trails on days that I can get to the foothills and/or mountains.

That said, it is clear to me that, with age, I'm slowing down, especially on the trail. But yet I have never felt stronger. While I have clearly lost a step, the raw endurance is there more than ever. I can go a looooooooooooong way. It would be interesting to run another 24-hour race and see if I could go north of 135 miles. I feel the maturity is there to crank out 135+ over 24 hours. Maybe next year?

Finishing the Leadville Trail Marathon
on Saturday.

Last month, I lined up for the Colfax Marathon, a road race in and around downtown Denver, with a back-of-mind goal of qualifying for the 2018 Boston Marathon. Though I did snag that BQ time, it was by no means easy! With a fair number of hills and the "mile high effect" in full force for all 26.2 miles, this race is no joke. At mile 10, I was feeling it but somehow hung on and came in with a just-okay time of 3:13, good for a BQ but probably just short of the threshold for being able to gain entry into the actual race due to what will surely be high demand. We'll see how it goes. If I don't get into Boston, I will not shed a tear for I'll have a winter of skiing in the Rocky Mountains to look forward to. But it would be nice to go back one of these days.

Then this past weekend I lined up for my sixth Leadville Trail Marathon. This year, due to very heavy late spring snow in the high country, we ran the snow route, which misses Ball Mountain but still takes you up Mosquito Pass, which tops out at 13,185 feet. Given that I had put a decent effort into the Colfax Marathon, my goal for the Leadville Trail Marathon was simply a strong training run up high. And that's what I got from it. Despite absolutely brutal 50+ mile per hour headwinds at the top of Mosquito Pass and some stomach discomfort around mile 22 (nothing ever came of it--just some discomfort), I crossed the finish line feeling good. The snow course throws at you a mind-blowing 12,600 feet of combined elevation change, all between 10,200 feet and 13,185 feet, over the 26.2 miles. I must have run it at a smart, conservative pace because I felt great the next day and feel good again today. No post-race issues at all.

  

My next event is the Chase the Moon 12-Hour on July 7. Again, the goal is a strong training run. I had originally signed up for CTM with a goal of 50 miles but we'll see how that goes. If I can get in 40 strong miles and walk away feeling good, that's OK, too. But 50 miles would be optimal.

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Best of luck to all toeing the line at Squaw Valley Ski Resort this weekend. If you have made it this far, you have guts and determination to the max. If you cross that finish line, you will cross it as a champion and will never look at life the same. It's the most magical ultrarunning experience I've ever had.

Now it's your turn: Who ya got for Western States--top male, top female and the podiums for each?